A decade following the UK entered into a hasty referendum that polarised the nation and caused chaos, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially tense and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the political, financial and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly split population where the losing side are resistant to losing and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say such a time is approaching, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or advocates are willing to participate with the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author supports unity or the current situation. Each composes two pieces that strive for objectivity in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and social data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over identity markers, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the concept that there might be good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate say they support unity but oppose increased taxation or implementing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his era is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified arguments, he stated. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and somebody will in the end lose but both parties has got valuable insights to gain from the alternative positions."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
