Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the crisis triggered by the announcement of a new comprehensive peace framework for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "significant advancement" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its response: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Peace Talks and Military Action
The chain of contrasting events captured the bleak nature of the recent timeframe. By day, political struggles are fought: positive announcements are delivered from various governments. Considerable effort is devoted on containing certain initiatives. By night, Moscow brutally reminds the world that, for them, war remains the key method for achieving "resolution".
Nocturnal Warfare
As Russia's attack unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is able to track projectile deployments from across the border, a capacity provided through timely intelligence. From observation points, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been dispatched to counter approaching guided weapons roared overhead – advanced fighter aircraft supplied to Ukraine by Western partners.
Moments later, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons thundered: multiple launches fired to intercept a incoming threat. This was a modern interception technology at work, probably provided by allied countries. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, shaking the windows. The instant of fear quickly gives way to grim resignation: possibly the hostile projectile won't cause damage this time, sparing the city from devastation and additional electricity failures.
Ongoing Risks
Soon after, a automatic firearm engaged a drone in the vicinity, part of a mobile-fire group – most likely allied-provided weaponry. Sadly, the shots failed to hit the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its target.
Intermittently, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv faced the daybreak reports: multiple fatalities, damage and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As typically, everyone still went about their day – living the war. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's essential dependence on external assistance – a reliance that European nations are clearly incapable to fill in the short term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The comprehensive proposal from American leadership provoked deep reactions, debate and deep concern – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and international summits.
Every new proposal from American administration follows the consistent cycle: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, succeeds in resisting. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This pattern will, no doubt, endure.
Political Considerations
It is easy to blame specific actors of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration functions according to a assumption understood by seasoned negotiators: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration presumes that it is unfeasible to force Russia to surrender the territory that it already controls in Ukraine's south or east.
The issue is that while recognising this factual reality, US leadership does little to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from assuming that the situation will not change more in its advantage in the coming year.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Russian leadership is convinced that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its partners are nearing depletion. Their motivation to agree to terms that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is close to zero. There may be numerous efforts to stop fighting, but they will persist as long as Russia's leader remains completely certain in the outcome.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still hold out, gradually sacrificing people and territory but avoiding a total frontline collapse until conditions improve in its benefit.
Existing Situation
Objectively, there are no actual prerequisites for a armistice. Now, personal considerations are coming into play: political desires to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to unite the population around the country's interests against any plan Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their focus does not shift toward domestic problems. And although their mission will now be significantly challenging after latest incidents, it remains very improbable that this will modify their basic position.
These two forces are influencing discussions.
Summary and Prospects
It took a mere seven days to terminate the proposed articles of the most recent proposal. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, opposition by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all served their function.
While new plans based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter negotiation assaults from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate specific hesitation to modify developments, if they remain united and improve their protective measures at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to defend against evening bombardments will, for the foreseeable future, primarily depend on ongoing international assistance.
